Pathologically Sane

Iranian War Plan

2006-08-06T15:38:00.000-04:00

A rational Iran, thinking itself pushed into a do-or-die corner, would follow the current Hamas/Hizbollah actions with:

initiating a Hazara-led Phase III main-force assault on central Afghanistan, with a seige of Kabul the focus -- without involving conventional Iranian troops.
ordering a Shia "People's War" uprising in southern Iraq, seizing control of the petro infrastructure, road & rail networks, water works and electricity-generating facilities -- and getting all those online and operating as quickly as possible.
invading Sunni central Iraq with Islamic Republic of Iran Regular Forces, with the strategic goal of a direct Syria-Iran linkage -- or at least create a de-facto fortified frontline between a US-Kurdish northern Iraq and an Iranian southern Iraq.
setting seige upon Baghdad, leaving an open corridor to northern Iraq to allow mass refugee flows into the US-Kurdish area.
driving Sunni Arabs through southern Iraq to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, clearing central Iraq of Sunnis.
enticing the US Navy into committing heavy forces into the Persian Gulf, and then bottling them in by closing the Strait of Hormuz -- then launching missile, air, and small-craft attacks against the fleet.
encouraging Syria and Egypt to jointly invade Israel -- splitting the glory if successful, and ensuring that neither controls a new Palestine.
fomenting rebellion in the Shia Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia -- ideally after assassinating Osama bin Laden, who would otherwise likely attempt to establish a caliphate in the "Land of the Two Holy Places."
activating Iranian-controlled terrorist cells world-wide.

This scenerio could only be met by the US with defeat or a stupendous, World War II-style mobilization and world-wide military assault.

This raises two questions: are rationalists in control of Iran, and if so do they feel so threatened; and how would the US respond -- acceptance of defeat and retreat from the Middle East, or with unimaginably violent retribution?

Cheney Thinks We Don't & It's "Burn" not "Out"

2006-02-16T11:50:00.000-05:00

As the noose tightens around Cheney's neck in the Plame/Wilson affair, the Vice President makes a startling assertion -- he has the authority to declassify official documents.

In other words, Cheney's trying to preempt the prosecution. This way, not only does "Scooter" Libby get off, but so do the "superiors" that Libby admitted to Fitztgerald had authorized the leak.

If Cheney gets away with this, the Imperial Presidency is in full bloom.

Oh, and just because I've not seen it mentioned anywhere else and it bugs the hell out of me, CIA agent Valerie Plame was not "outed." She was "burned." That's the term used when spies are revealed. Being "outed" is for closeted gays, not for agents of national security. They, and just about anyone they've dealt with overtly, are now in danger. That's why it's called "burning" them.

Saying she was "outed" makes it sound no worse than the world finding out some Hollywood actor is gay. No one will die over an "outing," but have no doubt, the "burning" of Plame has cost lives.

Koenigsberg is Kaliningrad

2005-09-26T19:23:00.000-04:00

The former Prussian heartland, split between the DDR, the Soviet Union and Poland had as its capital Koenigsberg. That lovely Imperial city became Kaliningrad, U.S.S.R. after the Great Patriotic War.

Today, it is still part of Russia, and Putin seems determined to make sure it stays that way. A new fiber optic telecommunications system is being routed along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, at great cost. Why? To avoid NATO countries in its path. NATO countries, between Russian and Kaliningrad. Some days, the reality of the demise of the U.S.S.R. kicks you in the gut. As does the insanity of keeping NATO in existence, and adding to it the former satellites of the Soviets... not to mention, the former parts of Imperial as well as Communist Russia that are now "Partners for Peace."

Iran Not As Friendless As Iraq

2005-09-22T18:51:00.000-04:00

Russia and China are signalling again that they won't allow the U.S. to drive the international response to Iran's nuclear designs the way we were allowed to with Iraq's supposed nuclear ambitions.

"And Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told an EU team headed by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw at the United Nations that sending the Iran issue to the Security Council could be counter-productive, a European participant said.

The diplomat quoted Li as saying that kicking the issue from Vienna to New York "could encourage Iran to take extreme measures" and would not be constructive."

What goes unsaid in this report from Pakistan is A.Q. Khan's involvement in Iran's nuclear programs... and the Bush Administration's shameful downplaying of Khan's nuclear proliferation actions. As Bush and Rice try to find a way out of the Persian Nightmare, they might want to re-think the "strategic alliance" with Pakistan. And do what they should have in 2001... take the Pakistani problem seriously.

Paying for K2

2005-09-21T11:57:00.000-04:00

The Pentagon is paying Uzbekistan $23 million for using K2 during the Afghan war... even though the U.S. is being kicked off the base in January. Well, at least we're paying our bills. That's at least honest.

The kicker is of course the Uzbek regime and it's treatment of its citizens, and whether the fighting in Andijan was between security forces and Islamic terrorists/rebels, or between soldiers and unarmed citizens?

When you get in bed with tyrants...

"Fortified Hamlets"

2005-09-16T23:52:00.000-04:00

So is this part of the suddenly fabled "oil spot" strategy? Mentioned in passing in this article posted to GlobalSecurity.org, is the construction of a 64-kilometer dirt berm around Mosul in July, 2005 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and one around Tal Afar before the Iraqi-led operation. Fortified Hamlets and ARVN of the 21st Century?

If so, read Martin Luther King's "Beyond Vietnam" speech of April, 1967. Hell, just do a search for "fortified hamlet" and take in the three paragraphs leading up to the phrase.

This trend, which drawing down U.S. forces will accelerate, leads to defeat. Is the Bush team inherently inclined to catastrophic failure by the characters of the individuals of which it is embodied, or is it the natural outcome of all these sucessful imbeciles combining in unholy union?

Let the Nuclear Games Begin...

2005-09-16T09:55:00.000-04:00

Iranian oppositionists report that the Islamic Republic has produced 3,500 gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment for nukes. Plans, according to those with an agenda that would benefit from excitment over this report, state that Iran (or Persia as I prefer) is planning on building 50,000 of these.

Of course, with the aid they received from our Pakistani "ally" A.Q. Khan's nuclear network, the Persians are just a few short years from joining the nuclear club. How exciting will that be! And how wonderful that the China-Russia axis is continuing its work.

Will Bush ever remove his head from his ass long enough to recognize that the main danger to the U.S. isn't from low-rent terrorists sponsored by states both allied with and against us, but rather from those states themselves? Terrorism is a tactic. It can best be stopped by destroying the states engaging in it, not by chasing two-bit fanatics across the globe.

As Planning Begins for Eurasia...

2005-08-29T06:52:00.000-04:00

Russia, China and India are now planning military exercises similar to the just completed Sino-Russian Peace Mission 2005 field exercises. RIA Novosti is calling this expanding alliance the "Russia-China-India triangle," although I believe the formal name is to be... Eurasia.

What, beyond reaction against U.S. attempts at gaining hegemony world-wide (see the Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz "Project for a New American Century" reports from the late 90's calling explicity for such hegemony or single-superpowerism), is driving this political grouping?

Russia in the Caucasus, India in Kashmir, and China in Xinjiang have to deal with Islamic terrorists and extremists, whose main bases are in Pakistan and Afghanistan. China has abandoned its support for Pakistan in favor of establishing cooperation with India for this very reason.

Dropping Pakistan in exchange for Indian assistance in the GWOT would have been the wise move for Washington, obviously. Instead, the Middle Kingdom see the path of wisdom and pre-empts us.

Just to give us a taste of both the past and the future, Russia detained Senators Lugar and Obama for three hours at a Russian airport as their U.S. military flight was preparing to fly to Ukraine. Putin, I think, realizes the advantages to be gained from a new Cold War. The Bush dynasty's attempt at a Novus Ordum Secularum, it appears, is in imment danger of collapse.

Oil Prices High: Economic Attack on Chinese?

2005-08-28T17:23:00.000-04:00

A question occurred to me today: why does the U.S. allow oil prices to be high as they are? Surely, as candidate Bush said in 2000:

"I think the President ought to get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say: 'We expect you to open your spigots.' The President of the United States must jawbone OPEC members to lower the price..."

Is it that President Bush has found that it's not that easy to get OPEC to raise prices? Is it because he can't browbeat Chavez's Venezuela into increasing production or otherwise lowering prices? Certainly it's not because he, Cheney and most the rest of the Administration are oil folk. That kind of conspiracy talk belongs in... a grand jury room.

No, the most likely answer seems to me to be three-fold. One, to get the most money possible for Iraqi oil, thereby, somewhat, lowering the cost of our occupation. Second, helping our oil producing allies -- Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, FSU dictatorships on the Caspian Littoral, Russia, and the oil producing South China Sea states. Third, to nut-kick the Chinese at the pump and factory, and slow their economic growth... and appetite for oil.

This scenerio has all the hallmarks of a Bush-Cheney plan: it's simple to understand, must proceed in secret to have a chance of success, accepts the painful implications for the U.S. and world economies, and is stark-ravingly madly wrong.

First, the Iraqi occupation costs can be more effected by creating a secure, safe environment in Iraq. But Bush won't go along with the painful actions it would require to do so: go to a war economy at home, recruit or draft half a million more troops, and openly call for a massive, decade-long occupation. Second, almost all of these "allies" are biding their time and using their new found petro-wealth to arm and prepare for the coming world war -- in which they're not likely to back the U.S. Third, the Chinese themselves have been trying to slow growth to more manageable levels -- to the extreme of allowing Chinese oil companies to limit imports of gas and sending riot police to ration gas.

True, I can't find any evidence for the scenerio just painted. However, it smacks of the simplistic, childish Machiavellianism the Bush administration is well known to favor.

Abazaid On Tour

2005-08-24T16:59:00.000-04:00

Central Command's General John Abazaid is on tour now, shoring up the 'Stans in light of the Uzbek's unseemly "get the hell out" demand. So far, he's getting a good reception.

Up in the Caucasus, the Georgians are protesting Russian recon overflights... which the Russians quickly denied. Think they're checking out the pipelines, or is this about Chechnya?

Interesting Russian view of Putin's military prep plans... the author thinks he's in the U.S. mindset, that is, preparing for world war when he should be preparing for lower intesity conflicts. Hmm.

Abdallah in Moscow as Katyushas Strike from Jordan

2005-08-21T15:22:00.000-04:00

Very interesting... King Abdallah II was with Putin in Moscow on Thursday, August 19th when the Russian leader called for the withdrawal of "foreign troops" from Iraq on a definite timetable.

The next day, of course, some group fired Katyushas (aka Stalin Organs) at two U.S. ships in the port of Aqaba, while Putin and Abdallah continued their talks... and Abdallah signed a deal for Russian aircraft variously reported to worth between $80-100 million.

The Ha'aretz article makes notice of the obvious difference between the attacks on the the USS Ashland & USS Kearsage using Katyusha multiple rocket launchers and the style of attack of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda attacks are well planned, asymmetrical and designed for mass civilian casualties. This was a military-style operation, using heavy military equipment, against a convential military target... and, it was staged from Jordan, one of the our staunchest Arab allies.

So what gives? In case you're not familar with the Katyusha, here's what one looks like. As you can see, it's not something you can easily hide or pretend to be using for a backyard barbeque or something. It's a large-scale piece of military hardware used by main-force troops. And, most interestingly, Jordan's military uses mainly U.S., British and French weapons systems -- not Russian.

Who in the neighborhood does own many Katyushas? Syria, Eygpt and whoever was quick enough to the firesale Bush and Rumsfeld opened in Iraq after the invasion ("Freedom's untidy, and free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things," Rumsfeld said. "They're also free to live their lives and do wonderful things. And that's what's going to happen here.").

Of course, the Bush administration is blaming... Al Qaeda. Their theory is that al Zarqawi's group, acting on Bin Laden's orders, brought the Katyusha into the country from Iraq and manned the weapon. Possible... but not as likely as Hezbollah acting on Iran's urging. Hezbollah has plenty of Katyushas, as do their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. And, they're not afraid to hit the U.S. After all, it was likely Hezbollah that used suicide car bombers on the U.S. embassy and Marine barracks in 1983, causing Reagan to cut and run from Lebanon. If these missiles had struck the Ashland and Kearsage, it's possible, they no doubt think, that Bush would follow Reagan's lead.

All of which lead back to the lead. How convenient was it that King Abdallah was out of the country during the attack, and how odd he was in Russia... home of the Katyusha. Odd as well that he's committing his country to spending nearly $100 million for two Russian transport aircraft... after all, Russian aircraft have a tendency to fall from the sky.

Russian and Chinese forces in manuevers together... a Jordanian-Russian love-fest... Katyushas falling from the skies in a brilliantly-conceived attack... Iran determined to get the Persian nuke... Pakistan running blind & wild... and the U.S. tied down in a imbecilic counter-insurgency in the desert. What the hell is going on?

Russo-Chinese Exercises Begin

2005-08-18T17:50:00.000-04:00

Well, for the first time the Russians and the Chinese militaries are training together. If the U.S. wasn't knee deep in the Big Muddy this would be big news in the States. But it's all that the press can do to keep the chattering masses focused on Iraq... and to occassionally remind the citizens of the "world's only hyperpower" that Bin Laden is still free, almost four years after ordering the hit on the U.S.

Oh yeah, and the rest of the folks from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be honored guests at the exercises. What was that about Afghanistan?

Revenge of the Genes: Part II & Oil Notes

2005-08-14T20:28:00.000-04:00

Mosquitoes Drawn to People Infected with Maleria
Very often we're just vehicles for genes, with the genes engineering our behavior to their own ends. Using suprising methods that include taking advantage of chemically-driven propensities -- in this case mosquitoes preference for an odour released by the malerial host -- to increase the likelihood of the host being bitten by a mosquito, which then can, often enough, pass it along to another host.

"What’s surprising is that this is not to the advantage of anybody but the parasite," says Jo Lines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK. "This tremendously important interaction for the person and the mosquito – both can die as a result – is being engineered by the parasite."

Bird Flu Progress Map
The Avian Flu virus continues its march west... and right into Afghanistan. Emerging threat #1? Or just the normal progression of a virus likely to mutate into relative harmlessness?

Has It Only Been Eleven Years? BTC Online
Eleven short years ago the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline was born as an historic agreement in the newly emerging, formerly Soviet Near East. Today, after years of development, frustration, bribery and war, oil from the Caspian is on its way to Turkey and the sea. My first tentative venture following this project, 1999 - 2001, can be found here, if one desires.

The Good Old Days -- OPEC shoots for $22 - $28 Per Barrel
Speaking of olden times, do you remember when the powers that be worried about the "high" price of oil? This CNN Money article from 2000 is, well, sort of heart-warming.

PRAGUE, Czech Republic (CNNfn) - The world's oil producing nations have pledged to cooperate to keep the price of oil within a "reasonable" level to ensure the global economy does not fall into a slump, leading ministers and finance officials said Sunday.
PRICE OF OIL 9/24/2000: $32.68 per barrel

"There is an awareness among oil producing countries that this extreme oil price is not in their best interest," echoed IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler. "I think oil producers are well aware of their impact on the global economy, specifically on the world's poor," he said.

While the group opted not to define what a "reasonable" price for oil is, Brown noted that the committee relied on OPEC's official target price corridor of between $22 and $28 dollars per barrel in its assessment. "We agreed that further steps must be taken," he said.

And further steps, indeed, were taken.
PRICE OF OIL TODAY, 8/14/05: $66.45

Turks, Azeris, & Georgians Ignore US

2005-08-09T19:09:00.000-04:00

Azerbaijan has announced bold plans to build a... railroad. True, that seems very 19th Century, but given that the announcement has the Armenians roiled up (it will bypass Armenia) one has to assume that it will transport oil.

The Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway brings together Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. It excludes Armenia and ignores U.S. objections. Naturally, U.S. congressmen have gotten into the action, crafting a bill designed to keep U.S. dollars from helping to fund it... Armenians, you see, are a surprisingly large and vocal minority in the United States.

Of course this is also tied into the on-going Nagorno Karabakh conflict and so could become a flashpoint in the only-suspended Azeri-Armenian conflict over the enclave. Naturally, the U.S. is considering bases in the area. After all, one oil war at a time isn't likely to appease the Bush mis-administration.

Turks Notice Middle Kingdom

2005-08-07T11:52:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure who Ali Kulebi, the author of this piece is, or if his opinions reflect Turkish mainstream ones, but his op-ed makes good reading. There are several interesting points:

However, several days after the ultimatum demanding the U.S. forces' withdrawal from the Central Asian republics, China took a step back together with Russia and touched on the success of the U.S. especially in Afghanistan and announced that the U.S. presence in the region is an assurance against terrorism. It is certain that China, with the policy of "two steps forward, one step back," will make use of the weaknesses of the U.S.' decreasing power in Eurasia.

This quote I'm following up on:

In particular General Zhu's recent threat is the most effective and serious message that the U.S. has ever received from China, which has said to have had good relations with the U.S. in recent years. Saying in his speech, "We prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of the Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared for hundreds of their cities to be destroyed by China," General Zhu -- known as a faculty member at the Chinese National Defense Academy and a hawk -- gave the message that China could, if necessary, strike the U.S. through its long-range missiles carrying nuclear warheads (China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964). Even though this statement goes against China's "no first strike" policy, General Zhu is not the first Chinese official to made such an important statement.

Here are links to more info on the story, starting with a Google search, the Taipei Times, some outfit known as the Epoch Times, and the International Herald Tribune.

Taiwan or Central Asia?

2005-08-06T12:36:00.000-04:00

Are upcoming Russo-Chinese wargames aimed at getting the attention of the United States over our spread into Central Asia, or at Taiwan and its sporadic lurches towards independence?

Russian media outlets claim that a major row erupted between China and Russia over the location for the exercises. It was claimed that Russia had pushed for Xinjiang, due to its proximity to Central Asia. This location would allow Russia to highlight the importance of its air force base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan.

Or are they practice for maintaining friendly regimes in the area:

Russian media outlets claim that a major row erupted between China and Russia over the location for the exercises. It was claimed that Russia had pushed for Xinjiang, due to its proximity to Central Asia. This location would allow Russia to highlight the importance of its air force base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan.

Or are they designed to do all three? Whatever the intent, the message is clear: Russia and China are following through on agreements they've made over the past several years to counter U.S. goals of reaching hegemony in the world.

H5N1 Russian Tour Continues

2005-08-05T17:59:00.000-04:00

Our troops in Afghanistan and Iraq might want to consider killing every bird they see... H5N1 is being reported in Kazakstan. Of course, the 'Stans have their own contingents of U.S. troops, so we're going to soon see it all over Central Asia... and it shouldn't then take long to hit the U.S.

Wonder if the geniuses who brought us the Iraqi quagmire have given any thought to this little nightmare?

Nope, Nothing to Worry About

2005-08-04T08:29:00.000-04:00

Well, turns out I was right again. There is nothing to worry about over the coming together of Russian and China for their first major combined wargames... so says Brig. Gen. Carter Ham of the U.S. Joint Staff:

"Clearly, there's interest in anything that affects security in the Pacific region," the general said. "I wouldn't say that it's something they're particularly worried about, but certainly as it may potentially affect security, they're very interested," he added.

I'm linking to the Washington Times article on this, so you can get the right-wingnut view of this... and notice that the ace reporter they put on this case thinks the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a "new grouping" of Central Asian states. Let's see, the group was formally set up in 2001 and derived from the informal Shanghai Five that predates that. Yes, the Moonies are on top of things as usual.

There's Nothing to See Here, Please Move Along

2005-08-03T16:59:00.000-04:00

RFE/RL is reporting on the upcoming Sino-Russian wargames, and it turns out, according to their source, that there's nothing to worry about..

In a statement quoted by Xinhua, the Chinese Defense Ministry said the exercises are not aimed against the interests of any third country.

Well, glad that worrying about this is off my plate.

Russians Find Wahhabis in Dagestan

2005-08-02T08:57:00.000-04:00

Interfax is reporting that authorities in Dagestan captured five Wahhabi followers with military weapons. Of course, while they list everything from AKs to RPGs to hundreds of pounds of TNT, they also mention

"an unemployed man was detained in Dagestan's capital of Makhachkala on Monday and a revolver and five home-made cartridges were confiscated from him."

Not sure if Interfax confused two stories, or if the FSB lumped the fellow in the the Islamics mentioned above... or, if that's the state of the Dagestani rebels. Some heavily armed, some making it up as they go. That would seem the most likely case. Professionals mixed with amateurs, much like what the U.S. seems to have been facing in Iraq... although most of those are now becoming pros.

The Forgotten Southern Flank

2005-07-31T18:32:00.000-04:00

While it's easy to focus on the Oil Wars, the rise of China, Islamic militantism, and other such things, I too often lose sight of our virtually undefended southern border... and our Drug War which fuels so much of the crime, corruption, violence and poverty that drives so many of our neighbors to the south into illegally emigrating to the U.S.

The Drug War continues to spawn smaller wars between producers, distributers, wholesalers and retailers in the illegal drug trade, including the escalating battle between narco-trafficers in Nuevo Laredo. We've seen this before in Columbia as well as Mexico, and other nations as well. However, as the world enters a more troubled period, and forces build south of our border, these narco-wars could lead to a massive migration north... could even, whether Quixotic or not, to a violent diasporic invasion.

The causes of death in empires is varied, but the fatal blow is often mass migration of violent poor people from the "barbarian" areas near the imperial "homeland." Endemic poverty, brutal repression, exploitative economic systems, population and environmnetal pressures, foreign invasion, casual as well as organized corruption and cruel, crude violence are the engines of this explosion. Without careful attention, this force could be directed at the U.S., just as it was against Rome west and east, against Babylon, against Kwarzim, etc., etc.

Evolutionary Aside: The Genes March On...

2005-07-30T15:19:00.000-04:00

Once a week it's a good idea to check in on what natural horrorshow is anxiously awaiting it's cue to step onstage... this week it's our favorite Chinese import and cruel viral buddy, H5N1, a.k.a Avian Flu.

What I mean by "natural horrorshow" can be guessed at by startlingly inept statements such as this one from the Russian Agriculture Ministry on Friday:

"That raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope," the statement said. Ministry officials could not immediately be reached for elaboration."

Ministry officials could not immediately be reached for elaboration?! First thought: no, doubtless they're far too engaged managing microbes and whatnot to bother answering reporters' questions; second thought: even the Ministry's press flacks? Third thought: "raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope... " -- like, hauling ass so pronto they didn't do more than alert the press then bug out Chernobyl-style? Or has Putin reached deep within himself and pulled out a little Ivan/Josef used the human-cauturize method of undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope...

Last thought: at the very least, the "statement" was either mailed, faxed or emailed to the press otherwise there would have been Ministry officials present to reach for serious elaboration.

Oh, and from crofsblogs comes a link to Foreign Affairs' current special issue on The Next Pandemic? along with links to information in depth on H5N1.

"The outbreak was first detected about two months ago in bar-headed geese at China's remote saltwater lake, which is a key breeding location for migratory birds that overwinter in southeast Asia, Tibet and India." says the AP article.

"[S]outheast Asia" seems awfully close to the 'Stans... and U.S. troops. As every article or post on H5N1 has to point out -- and I'll be no piker and break the tradition -- Avian Flu has the potential to kill beyond even the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. And, yes, it was spread by troops fighting WWI. And, yes, it was a greater killer of American troops than was German fire, fires, and gas.

And, yes, American troops are still hunting bin Laden in Afghanistan... and bouncing from there to the States to Iraq to Europe.

That does indeed raise the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope.

Karimov No Bakiev

2005-07-30T12:45:00.000-04:00

Well, turns out "Old Europe" Rumsfeld should have spent his time on his whirlwind "now you see me, now you don't" Central Asian trip in Uzbekistan. The Karimov government has handed our walking papers to us over our spiriting out of Uzbek refugees who had sought sanctuary in Kygrystan.

Once again the triumphalist American press, which lauded Rumsfeld's Kygrz "victory," was caught trumpeting Bush Administration sucesses while barely mentioning, and certainly never investigating, tangential issues that would very quickly rise up to bite us in the ass.

When we the media quit giving the Bush Administration such leeway, and start calling their bullshit as soon as they see it? One would think that with Bush lickspittle Judith Miller writing her memoirs in jail without much help from her "sources," that the press would realize that Bush is really only loyal (though exceedingly so) to political hacks, not journalistic ones, and that the best course is to honestly report the Administration's insane actions.

Siberian Light on a Hot Subject

2005-07-30T12:40:00.000-04:00

"But it is amusing to think that the FSB is ambitious enough to not only still want to assassinate the US President, but to do it in such a way as to pin the blame on their even older enemies - the Georgians."

The comments above are from a interesting blog called, charmingly enough, SiberianLight.com. The comment was posted at the end of June, well before I caught wind of this little intriguing situation. Everyone with an interest in Russia and it's place in the world should visit the site... you'll find yourself returning often.

Arutunyan Is Who's van der Lubbe?

2005-07-30T01:15:00.000-04:00

The accused grenadier Vladimir Arutunyan is now accused by Georgian opposition politicians to be a stooge for Saakashvili... while others see Putin's hand. So who's van der Lubbe is he? Or is he just the usual suspect... a disgruntled loner in love with shadows?

Clever, Clever...

2005-07-28T18:39:00.000-04:00

"Also, several Georgian politicians saw the hand of Russia in the failed grenade attack at the U.S. president George Bush during his visit in Georgia in May."

This quote buried in the middle of an article on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's demure dismissals of Russian involvement in Georgian terrorist attacks, sounds very... interesting.

I'm not saying that it's true, but... it does explain quite a lot. Like:

why a grenade, for God's sake (so as not to accidentally kill him)
why said grenade didn't explode
why the Georgians and the U.S. ever told anyone about it after not stopping it and then not finding it for several days

If this sounds very much like a Cold War scenerio, or a spy thriller, well... yes, it would be too obvious for Putin, since every paranoid neocon already classifies him as an unrepentant Chekista... which, of course, would mean that to confound them, he would do exactly what they would expect, and then hope that cooler heads in the U.S. gov't wouldn't believe it. Savvy... we'll see more on this...

Bishkek Nods Towards Rummy

2005-07-26T08:15:00.000-04:00

The headlines today all sound so positive -- "US wins Kyrgyzstan's assurance on military base (Reuters)," and "Bishkek Assures Rumsfeld That US Air Base Can Stay (RFE/RL)."

Do the headline writers believe this, or are they just reporting what was put out by the Pentagon? Sure, the Defense Minister of Kyrgyzstan (his government has been in power what -- 2 months?) said "only after the situation has improved that this issue [of closing the Ganci base] will be considered by the two sides in accordance with agreements between Kyrgyzstan and the United States alone. [emphasis added]

Don't bet the kid's future on it... like Rumsfeld is. Another quote farther in the article illuminates things a bit -- "Bakiev and Rumsfeld also discussed closer bilateral ties on defense technology issues. " Since Kyrgyzstan isn't known as a world-leader in quantum mechanics, missile technology, or aeronautics, I'd have to asssume this means the U.S. is going to pony up a lot more than the $10 million annually we've been providing our "friends" in Bishkek.

It was interesting to note that the announcement didn't come from President Bakiev. Also interesting was the fact that Uzbekistan wasn't mentioned...

Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline -- Old is New Again

2005-07-25T20:50:00.000-04:00

To many of those I meet, the 1980's are ancient history, unrelated to our present troubles. They seem to believe -- even when Eliot Abrams and John Poindexter, et al return -- that nothing from those days has relevence to our "new" world.

Remember Nagorno-Karabakh? Oh, those crazy Armenians and Azeris. Now they're busy arming themselves like Caucasian Hatfields & McCoys. Mix with the accelerating disintegration in Dagestan and the continuing nightmare in Chechnya, and, hell, everything else... and it looks powder-key-y.

Rumsfeld to Speed Closing of Kyrgyzstan Base

2005-07-25T12:44:00.000-04:00

Quick, how said it and what countries was he speaking of:
"It looks to me like two very large countries were trying to bully some smaller countries."

If you guessed Gen. Richard Myers, speaking about Russia & China lording it over the 'Stans, you win! Now, of course, it's entirely possible that Russia and China did in fact bully or bride the 'Stans into playing along within the Changhai Group umbrella... but then, that's how we "conquered" Afghanistan and how we "control" Iraq.

Now Donald "Old Europe" Rumsfeld is off on another of his famous diplomatic jaunts. It should't be long before he drives 'Stans right back to Mother Russia... unless she can't top the $10 million in military aid we gave them last year. Yep, that's all we invested to keep the "Tulip Revolution" in place and to, let's just say it, bribe them into remaining on "our side." Pitiful. Mayberry Machiavellis indeed.

Caucasus Standing By To Explode

2005-07-20T16:01:00.000-04:00

As our policy-makers dream dreams of Middle Eastern hegemony leading to U.S. control over the region's oil, finally face up to the challenge of China but stupidly announce the fact, and burn counter-WMD CIA spies for cheap political "gain," the Caucasus powder-keg is ready to blast open -- and with it the entire Caucasus and Caspian Sea littoral.

"Dagestan is not only the biggest and most populous of the seven semi-autonomous republics of the North Caucasus, a region dominated by impoverished, non-Russian Muslim peoples, but also the most strategic. A large chunk of the Russian Caspian coast lies here, making Dagestan a key transport route for trade and oil.

A collapse of security would stretch to the limit Russia's armed forces, already bogged down in Chechnya, and galvanise the underground Islamic movements now stirring further west across the region."

What is equally as dangerous as the metastasis of radical Islamic rebellion that will almost inevitably spread across the Middle East -- even into Eygpt, Syria and Saudi Arabia -- will be the responses from Russia and China, and the counter-responses of the U.S.

The Bush Administration likely will follow its usual blunderingly ignorant, wrongheaded and disasterous instincts. This will include railing at Russia for what will likely be a horrendously bloody series of campaigns in the Caucasus and threatening China over any military and repressive measures it takes to quieten Xinjiang.

As always for the past fifteen years, the Caucasus and Caspian Sea littoral are the predictors of things to come.

No Comment Equals "Damnit!"

2005-07-12T17:02:00.000-04:00

RFL/RL is reporting that the U.S. has "no comment" on the newly elected leader of Kyrgyzstan's decision to "review" U.S. basing rights in the country.

At a time like this -- when Putin, the world's foremost politician/statesman, is playing his chess game, and the Middle Kingdom is securing both its security & its energy -- it's good to know that the U.S. has the "adults" in charge, and they aren't distracted by treasonous aides and their "Mayberry Machiavellian" manuevers.

Karimov Says Go

2005-07-11T13:07:00.000-04:00

Islam Karimov's Uzbek administration is following up on the Shangai Group's request that the U.S. leave the Karshi-Khanabad airbase that the Uzbeks have allowed us to use since the invasion of Afghanistan.

Let the Games Begin

2005-07-06T13:57:00.000-04:00

The U.S. State Department's spokesman, explaining why the U.S. is rejecting the Shangai Group's call that the United States pull out of bases in Uzbekistan and Kygyrzstan, said that the governments involved found them mutually beneficial. Unfortunately, he must not have noticed that both governments are part of Shangai Group.

Near Abroad Coming Home?

2005-07-05T13:00:00.000-04:00

Our friends at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have spoken... and asked the U.S. to set a deadline on leaving the former Soviet states of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Talk lately has been that the U.S. is building "permanent" bases in those and other Central Asian states, which of course is unacceptable to Russia.

It should have been obvious to the Bush Administration that the Russians would never quietly roll over and let us base U.S. troops and equipment in formerly Russian soil. Sure, there's not always a lot they can do about it right now, but they're setting their pieces in place to check us at every corner. This is simply the first move... how they're going to respond to the "Orange" and "Rose" revolutions is the more pressing concern.

Russian Western Flank -- No Longer In The Air?

2005-07-04T14:47:00.000-04:00

Putin continues his several years-long labor of securing his western flank at a meeting in Kaliningrad with Schroeder and Chirac. Treu enough (with a nod to Joyce and Koenigsberg), these two gentlemen are both wiltering forces politically... but not all of those around them are, and, either could return again.

It will be interesting to hear what their discussions on Iran and Iraq center on. As well, will they become a bloc at the G8 meeting?

*****
The Spirit of '76 is in trouble. On this Independence Day, remember that.
*****

Unocal Bid: Clearing the Decks

2005-07-03T10:36:00.000-04:00

As Putin and Hu secure their flanks and build alliances, the Chinese play the (with apologies to John Lukacs) "national socialist" card. Through CNOOC (70% owned by the People's Republic) and its bid for Unocal, the Middle Kingdom is trying to use a quasi-private corporation to buy strategic oil reserves.

Of course, the Chinese will also cut a few deals with another major oil producer.

Why "national socialist?" The Chinese are nationalists through-and-through, even when their government is communist/socialist, and they're becoming ever more a Sinoized offshoot of the generic form of national socialism. That is, the government may be run by a small clique of communists, but the larger point is that more and more socialism in China means subsudizing business and letting the populace fend (economically) for itself. While that hasn't reached the levels found in the U.S. and Russia, with the CNOOC/Unocal deal, it has become quite apparent.

Again, if the United States doesn't dig itself out of the Iraqi quagmire, find and kill Bin Laden, and refit it's military forces so that we are again up to any military challenge, we're going to find ourselves facing over half the world's population, the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal, and smart, determined leaders, while we are facing the wrong direction, depleting our conventional forces and material, over-working our logistical infrastructure, and looking like fools for not having destroyed Bin Laden.

It's not the terrorists we should be focused on. They, for all their sucesses on September 11, 2001, are not the major long-term threat to the United States (and Western civilization). That threat comes instead from nation-states, from Russia and China.

Russia - China - India - Iran?

2005-07-01T16:34:00.000-04:00

While US policy-makers struggle to understand counter-insurgency and try to subdue a country of 25 million (oh, and some other country of roughly the same size, and trying to find some other fellow named bin-something), the Shanghai Cooperation Group (remember them?) have decided to change the organization into an "interregional structure dealing with internal and external security issues," said Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, the vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies.

Oh, and they're thinking of adding India and Iran to the mix. Ah, it's nice to have "adults" in charge of US foreign policy these days.

Allies Mimic U.S.

2005-06-26T11:24:00.000-04:00

It used to be that our allies and friends saw America as the example to be imitated and emulated... and those days have returned, thanks to Bush and Rumsfeld. Not that Karimov needed any advice on how to torture his people, but it appears he's following the Pentagon's now standard playbook.

Who would have thought the day would come when America sponsored a former Politburo member and all-around asshole who routinely tortures his citizens, suppresses religious freedom, and keeps a lick-spittle press around for fun?

Nagorno-Karabakh: Rerun?

2005-06-19T11:21:00.000-04:00

Nagorno-Karabakh is back in the news with a new election being held... and denounced by Azeris and Turks. At the same time, Armenia is contemplating joining NATO, without much enthusiasm. Still part of CIS, a defection by Armenia could be the Russian line in the sand.

After all, at some point Putin will lose too much face with the Intelligence & Military if allows FSU countries to fall to NATO. Not to mention that if the Azeris and Armenians and the Armenians and Turks, can patch up their differences within a NATO framework, then the Caucasus and Caspain oil and pipelines will be controlled by US dependencies. Not something Russia-China-India will be happy to see... or allow to happen.

Trilateral War on Terror

2005-06-02T08:11:00.000-04:00

While the Bush administration dropped a bomb over the weekend, Russia - China - India released one of their own today.

Of course, given the post below, maybe not such a bad thing. Of course, whenever three nuclear powers join together to fight "a consistent, sustained and comprehensive battle against the menace without adopting any double standards..." you have to assume they're pointing the finger at someone.

Collective Daylight Manuevers

2005-03-20T11:15:00.000-05:00

While Russia's Chief of the General Staff refutes reports that a proposed Chinese-Russian joint military exercise has been cancelled, this remark makes the prospect of Sino-Russian co-operation less frightening:

"“We would like the military exercise to be held in good weather, although both the Russian and Chinese troops can make war in any weather conditions, be it winter, autumn or summer. It is no problem for us,” Baluyevsky continued."

Diplomatic Wins & Losses

2005-03-19T00:27:00.000-05:00

As Putin shores up his southeastern flank, GW Bush pisses into the wind.

Bush Misunderestimates Putin, Again

2005-02-27T13:10:00.000-05:00

"Mr Putin can hardly have welcomed Mr Bush's interference in Russian politics..." naturally enough. But did Bush realize he was causing Putin to lose face? Because he did, and he won't let that slide. So, as if the weapons sales to Syria, helping the Iranians' nuclear ambitions, mutual security alliances with China and India, not to mention opposing the US-Iraq war weren't enough, now Putin will have to tweak Bush again for this last insult.

Bush is wrong to try to stop the centralizing of power in Russia, and wrong to think he can deal with Putin like he does with Blair the Poodle. Unfortunately we're now going to have to see what long-term pain Putin will saddle us with in response to Bush's ignorant move.

Who Said the Bushes Were In Control?

2005-02-27T13:04:00.000-05:00

" Unit That Refused Mission Returns..." not to a series of court-martials, as one would expect. Whether they were right or wrong to disobey their orders I can't say from this remove. What I can say, is that the fact that they were able to disobey those orders, while in a combat theater, while the whole world was watching, is indicative of a lack of military discipline throughout the command right up to the Presidential group.

Is this any way to run a war?

Army Robots Head To Iraq

2005-02-20T10:54:00.000-05:00

"As soon as March or April, eighteen Talon robots armed with automatic weapons are scheduled to report for duty in Iraq, as part of the Army's Stryker Brigade."

Well, the diversion has been good for one thing... a massive FTX of robotic warriors. From Predators to Talons, we're seeing the future of land/air warfare. And with the casualty-concious in charge, expect to see more of this sort of thing. Best of all, some of it even works.

I expect Persia is working feverishly on some of these for themselves, before the long-signalled visit commences. Natuarlly, China is sure to be fielding something similar.

One of Chang's most vivid metaphors states, "Information-intensified combat methods are like a Chinese boxer with a knowledge of vital body points who can bring an opponent to his knees with a minimum of movement."

India Joins EU's Galileo

2005-02-20T10:32:00.000-05:00

India just joined, and "China has already concluded an agreement with the 25-nation European Union (EU) on Galileo. The satellite navigation market, currently dominated by the US system, GPS, is growing by 25 per cent a year."

So which will turn out to be more important, that very shortly satnav will be open to commercial competition, or that no longer will the US have the ability to "blind" opponents before and during combat operations?

"And China’s recent inclusion in Europe’s Galileo project, which will send 30 satellites into orbit by 2008, could enable the last major communist dictatorship to operate satellite-guided missiles..."

Sinking the Navy Just as it Becomes Useful

2005-02-18T12:22:00.000-05:00

"Republicans and Democrats argued that cutting back now could jeopardize the Navy's long-term domination of the seas, particularly in light of China's military improvements.

For too long we overspent on the Navy (remember Reagan's 600 ship fleet?). Now, the nimrods running things in the US want to eliminate a carrier and aircraft and submarines. Just as China, the main threat to US military hegemony, builds its fleet.

On the high seas, no navy comes close to the US's mammoth fleet. But, China's working on it. And since any fight with China on the ocean would center on the Chinese littoral (where Chinese land-based aircraft would have a force-multiplier effect creating a situation where they had near-parity with the US fleet), we'll need every aircraft carrier we can get our hands on. Not to mention, of course, planes and pilots.

While it's clear we need more littoral fighting ships, and to Rumsfeld's credit he's pushing them, we also need all the things we had in the 80's but didn't need so many of... carriers, troop transports, submarines, destroyers, anything that gives us an advantage thousands of miles from home.

Watch China... help Putin... counter EU moves... reduce Global Warming... and always, always, keep the Evangelical Christians from the levers of power.

Paying Back Al Qaeda

2005-02-16T10:09:00.000-05:00

"The sizable sums were given so that tribesmen could pay back loans from Al Qaeda."

These sizeable sums, about $800,000, were from the Pakisatani governenment as part of a peace deal. Unless, it wasn't a peace deal, and the tribes are taking the money for themselves, or are indeed passing it along to Al Qaeda.

Even if they are paying Al Qaeda back as part of a "face-saving" deal, that still means Pakistan is funding Al Qaeda... and since the US has given billions to Pakistan, that means that howerver indirectly, the US is making payments to Al Qaeda... above and beyond what our country sends to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States through petro-consumption, some of which finds its way to Islamic fundamentalists, if not directly to Al Qaeda.

Wonderful.

Tsar Putin - A Good Thing

2005-02-13T09:34:00.000-05:00

"The state of the north Caucasus almost makes another post-Beslan reform—Mr Putin's assumption of the right to appoint regional governors—look like a good idea. Nostalgia for Soviet stability is more prevalent than longing for democracy."

If there is any trend in the United States that needs to be reveresed, it is the bizzare Neocon Republican Wilsonianism that says America's role is to be the bringing of democracy to the world (instead, we should always remember John Quincy Adams' wise advice -- "America does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." ).

Of course, to believe that what is being pushed is a Reaganesque Wilsonianism is folly as well. It is all a mask for the Keptocracy's greedy machinations. Else we would be bringing the light to Turkmenistan, say, or Rwanda... or another oil-less horror story of a nation.

All of this is to say that there are times when it is in the US national interest, not to mention that of the affected people and even the world, when authoritarian governments are necessary (ideally as a precursor of republican government). And in Russia this is more true than just about anywhere. If Russia is to maintain its hold on the Caucasus (which it desperately wants to do), if it wants to defeat both the Oligarchs and the Mafia, and if it is to not break apart into dozens of petty statelets, it must have an undefeatably strong center. This is Putin's goal, as near as I can see it. And it is an admirable goal.

We must stop seeing democracy as some eternal good, right for all places at all times. It is not. Robert Kaplan's "Balkan Ghosts" made this point fairly successfully. A better acquaintance with history would make it clear to all.

Japan vs China

2005-02-12T18:44:00.000-05:00

"Long the leading destination for Japanese foreign investment, China displaced the United States last year as Japan's biggest single trading partner."

Contrary to accepted wisdom, this isn't necessarily a good thing. Increased trade leads to increased tension, particularly if the trading benefits are primarily going in one direction. Want to guess who's winning here?

The article also points to the Governor of Tokyo, who wants Japan to lay claim to the economic rights to an area of ocean around a Japanese atoll and to the fact that in December 2004 Japan formally identified China as a military threat. Well, it's about time Japan noticed.

INDEX: What It All Means

2005-02-12T18:24:00.000-05:00

This is a contrarian website. You will find that most of the opinions posted here are not what the majority consider correct.

I'll observe the major challenges facing the United States, and comment on the policies and actions likely to make the nation more secure while retaining our basic liberties. Use the code below to know what each post refers to:

Politically: The Kleptocracy
Militarily: China
Diplo-economically: European Union
Environmentally: Global Warming
Intellectually: Evangelical Christianity
Distraction: Oil Wars (aka War on Terror)

Comments are, of course, encouraged.