Iranian War Plan

A rational Iran, thinking itself pushed into a do-or-die corner, would follow the current Hamas/Hizbollah actions with:

• initiating a Hazara-led Phase III main-force assault on central Afghanistan, with a seige of Kabul the focus -- without involving conventional Iranian troops.
  
• ordering a Shia "People's War" uprising in southern Iraq, seizing control of the petro infrastructure, road & rail networks, water works and electricity-generating facilities -- and getting all those online and operating as quickly as possible.
• invading Sunni central Iraq with Islamic Republic of Iran Regular Forces, with the strategic goal of a direct Syria-Iran linkage -- or at least create a de-facto fortified frontline between a US-Kurdish northern Iraq and an Iranian southern Iraq.
• setting seige upon Baghdad, leaving an open corridor to northern Iraq to allow mass refugee flows into the US-Kurdish area.
• driving Sunni Arabs through southern Iraq to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, clearing central Iraq of Sunnis.
• enticing the US Navy into committing heavy forces into the Persian Gulf, and then bottling them in by closing the Strait of Hormuz -- then launching missile, air, and small-craft attacks against the fleet.
• encouraging Syria and Egypt to jointly invade Israel -- splitting the glory if successful, and ensuring that neither controls a new Palestine.
• fomenting rebellion in the Shia Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia -- ideally after assassinating Osama bin Laden, who would otherwise likely attempt to establish a caliphate in the "Land of the Two Holy Places."
• activating Iranian-controlled terrorist cells world-wide.

This scenerio could only be met by the US with defeat or a stupendous, World War II-style mobilization and world-wide military assault.

This raises two questions: are rationalists in control of Iran, and if so do they feel so threatened; and how would the US respond -- acceptance of defeat and retreat from the Middle East, or with unimaginably violent retribution?

Cheney Thinks We Don't & It's "Burn" not "Out"

As the noose tightens around Cheney's neck in the Plame/Wilson affair, the Vice President makes a startling assertion -- he has the authority to declassify official documents.

In other words, Cheney's trying to preempt the prosecution. This way, not only does "Scooter" Libby get off, but so do the "superiors" that Libby admitted to Fitztgerald had authorized the leak.

If Cheney gets away with this, the Imperial Presidency is in full bloom.

Oh, and just because I've not seen it mentioned anywhere else and it bugs the hell out of me, CIA agent Valerie Plame was not "outed." She was "burned." That's the term used when spies are revealed. Being "outed" is for closeted gays, not for agents of national security. They, and just about anyone they've dealt with overtly, are now in danger. That's why it's called "burning" them.

Saying she was "outed" makes it sound no worse than the world finding out some Hollywood actor is gay. No one will die over an "outing," but have no doubt, the "burning" of Plame has cost lives.

Koenigsberg is Kaliningrad

The former Prussian heartland, split between the DDR, the Soviet Union and Poland had as its capital Koenigsberg. That lovely Imperial city became Kaliningrad, U.S.S.R. after the Great Patriotic War.

Today, it is still part of Russia, and Putin seems determined to make sure it stays that way. A new fiber optic telecommunications system is being routed along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, at great cost. Why? To avoid NATO countries in its path. NATO countries, between Russian and Kaliningrad. Some days, the reality of the demise of the U.S.S.R. kicks you in the gut. As does the insanity of keeping NATO in existence, and adding to it the former satellites of the Soviets... not to mention, the former parts of Imperial as well as Communist Russia that are now "Partners for Peace."

Iran Not As Friendless As Iraq

Russia and China are signalling again that they won't allow the U.S. to drive the international response to Iran's nuclear designs the way we were allowed to with Iraq's supposed nuclear ambitions.

"And Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told an EU team headed by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw at the United Nations that sending the Iran issue to the Security Council could be counter-productive, a European participant said.

The diplomat quoted Li as saying that kicking the issue from Vienna to New York "could encourage Iran to take extreme measures" and would not be constructive."

What goes unsaid in this report from Pakistan is A.Q. Khan's involvement in Iran's nuclear programs... and the Bush Administration's shameful downplaying of Khan's nuclear proliferation actions. As Bush and Rice try to find a way out of the Persian Nightmare, they might want to re-think the "strategic alliance" with Pakistan. And do what they should have in 2001... take the Pakistani problem seriously.

Paying for K2

The Pentagon is paying Uzbekistan $23 million for using K2 during the Afghan war... even though the U.S. is being kicked off the base in January. Well, at least we're paying our bills. That's at least honest.

The kicker is of course the Uzbek regime and it's treatment of its citizens, and whether the fighting in Andijan was between security forces and Islamic terrorists/rebels, or between soldiers and unarmed citizens?

When you get in bed with tyrants...

"Fortified Hamlets"

So is this part of the suddenly fabled "oil spot" strategy? Mentioned in passing in this article posted to GlobalSecurity.org, is the construction of a 64-kilometer dirt berm around Mosul in July, 2005 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and one around Tal Afar before the Iraqi-led operation. Fortified Hamlets and ARVN of the 21st Century?

If so, read Martin Luther King's "Beyond Vietnam" speech of April, 1967. Hell, just do a search for "fortified hamlet" and take in the three paragraphs leading up to the phrase.

This trend, which drawing down U.S. forces will accelerate, leads to defeat. Is the Bush team inherently inclined to catastrophic failure by the characters of the individuals of which it is embodied, or is it the natural outcome of all these sucessful imbeciles combining in unholy union?

Let the Nuclear Games Begin...

Iranian oppositionists report that the Islamic Republic has produced 3,500 gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment for nukes. Plans, according to those with an agenda that would benefit from excitment over this report, state that Iran (or Persia as I prefer) is planning on building 50,000 of these.

Of course, with the aid they received from our Pakistani "ally" A.Q. Khan's nuclear network, the Persians are just a few short years from joining the nuclear club. How exciting will that be! And how wonderful that the China-Russia axis is continuing its work.

Will Bush ever remove his head from his ass long enough to recognize that the main danger to the U.S. isn't from low-rent terrorists sponsored by states both allied with and against us, but rather from those states themselves? Terrorism is a tactic. It can best be stopped by destroying the states engaging in it, not by chasing two-bit fanatics across the globe.

As Planning Begins for Eurasia...

Russia, China and India are now planning military exercises similar to the just completed Sino-Russian Peace Mission 2005 field exercises. RIA Novosti is calling this expanding alliance the "Russia-China-India triangle," although I believe the formal name is to be... Eurasia.

What, beyond reaction against U.S. attempts at gaining hegemony world-wide (see the Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz "Project for a New American Century" reports from the late 90's calling explicity for such hegemony or single-superpowerism), is driving this political grouping?

Russia in the Caucasus, India in Kashmir, and China in Xinjiang have to deal with Islamic terrorists and extremists, whose main bases are in Pakistan and Afghanistan. China has abandoned its support for Pakistan in favor of establishing cooperation with India for this very reason.

Dropping Pakistan in exchange for Indian assistance in the GWOT would have been the wise move for Washington, obviously. Instead, the Middle Kingdom see the path of wisdom and pre-empts us.

Just to give us a taste of both the past and the future, Russia detained Senators Lugar and Obama for three hours at a Russian airport as their U.S. military flight was preparing to fly to Ukraine. Putin, I think, realizes the advantages to be gained from a new Cold War. The Bush dynasty's attempt at a Novus Ordum Secularum, it appears, is in imment danger of collapse.